By Zhang Nan
The Chinese commercial space market is no longer just for enthusiasts; it is now a high-stakes arena for investors. China’s A-share commercial space sector has surged, and in the private market, access to top companies is so competitive that even due diligence materials can be hard to obtain without connections.
The launch of the Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025–2027) and the establishment of a dedicated regulatory body marked a shift from general encouragement to systematic advancement. Major cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Hangzhou have introduced supportive measures.
Beijing’s Haidian district, a historic hub of China’s space industry, aims to build a globally influential commercial space cluster worth over 100 billion yuan ($14.5 billion) by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2030.
Chasing Musk
Capital markets are also aligning. Shanghai’s STAR Market has relaxed listing standards for space companies, opening IPO channels. At the same time, reports of Elon Musk’s SpaceX pursuing a trillion-dollar IPO and merging with xAI have fuelled enthusiasm. China’s application to the International Telecommunication Union for spectrum and orbital resources for over 200,000 satellites has further intensified momentum.
Behind this acceleration is a global “race for space resources.” In just a few years, SpaceX has launched over 10,000 satellites—about 45% of the global total. In comparison, China launched just 372 satellites last year. The urgency stems from limited orbital slots and spectrum availability.
Alongside these practical drivers, more futuristic narratives—space mining, solar power and tourism—are gaining traction in capital markets, suggesting growing belief that such concepts may become viable.
Technical and commercial hurdles
Challenges remain. China still faces technical hurdles in rocket reusability, supply chain gaps, and trade-offs between satellite cost and reliability. While domestic experts once ignored reusability due to China’s lower industrial costs, it is now the clear path to profitability. Calculations suggest a rocket must be reused at least nine times to break even.
Valuations have surged—some leading firms have tripled in value to over 70 billion yuan in months. Primary market shares that were sold at a discount early last year are now being snapped up at high premiums, leaving investors cautious.
Investment strategies are diverging. Some favour market leaders or high-value components, viewing commercial space as a “must-invest” sector. Others focus on downstream applications. Yet inflated valuations and uncertain commercialisation—especially for satellite companies—remain key concerns.
Rocket companies have clearer revenue paths and generally do not lack orders. Satellite firms, by contrast, face complex monetisation challenges. Remote sensing services rely heavily on government and enterprise clients, with slow and uncertain payments, and limited application scenarios.
Different institutions are pursuing distinct approaches: some integrate space with semiconductor technologies, while others emphasise upstream supply chains such as materials, structural components and 3D printing—critical bottlenecks for scalable, low-cost launches.
A long-term vision
The sector’s growth is widely seen as inevitable. Although rockets account for a small share of the value chain, they have strong multiplier effects—similar to high-speed rail, which drives wider economic activity. Satellite applications, however, remain uncertain in terms of which will prove most profitable.
Entrepreneurs are calling for more precise policy implementation and patience from investors. They stress that commercial space is a long-term endeavour, often requiring 10–15 years to achieve technological breakthroughs and commercial viability.
Ultimately, despite differing views on valuations and timelines, China’s commercial space sector is becoming clearer in direction. The country must both “learn from Musk” and pursue its own path, leveraging domestic industrial strengths. While some may see it as a speculative trend, others argue that bold imagination—whether in intercontinental travel, space resources or deep-space exploration—is essential. After all, without ambitious visions, there can be no future.
Source:
700多亿的商业航天，投不投？
