By Lee Shih Ta
Commercial space has become a strategic priority in China’s push to develop “new quality productive forces”, with government support accelerating investment in satellite constellations, launch services and related technologies. Yet as the sector expands, investors still lack a clear framework for valuing commercial space companies.
That issue may soon become more pressing. SpaceX‘s planned June 12 IPO, expected to value the company at about $1.75 trillion, could provide an important benchmark for how investors assess commercial space companies.
China’s commercial space sector has grown rapidly in recent years. Central and local governments have introduced supportive policies, while low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite projects such as the Spacesail (Thousand Sails) and GW constellations have advanced quickly. Companies including LandSpace, GalaxySpace and MinoSpace have completed new financing rounds, with several reportedly preparing for public listings. According to the China Center for Information Industry Development (CCID), the industry’s value has expanded from about 800 billion yuan ($118 billion) in 2020 to nearly 3 trillion yuan in 2025.
Despite that growth, there is little agreement on how commercial space companies should be assessed. New energy vehicle manufacturers can be evaluated through sales and market share, while artificial intelligence companies are often judged on model performance and user numbers. For commercial space businesses, however, the key metrics remain less obvious. Investors must decide whether value lies in launch capacity, satellites in orbit, order backlogs or other measures entirely.
Beyond rocket launches
A SpaceX IPO may help answer that question. Under traditional aerospace valuation models, the company would struggle to justify its estimated worth through launch services alone. Although SpaceX operates one of the world’s most successful commercial launch businesses, its valuation reflects expectations that extend well beyond rocket launches.
Over the past decade, SpaceX’s greatest achievement may not be landing reusable rockets, but rather using lower launch costs to build the Starlink satellite network. For investors, the real attraction is not SpaceX’s launch capability, but a global communications network made up of thousands of satellites and the recurring revenue it could generate in the years ahead.
According to publicly available data, Starlink had deployed more than 7,000 LEO satellites by early 2026, with its subscriber base surpassing 5 million and annual revenue estimated at more than $10 billion. What investors are chasing is not the 7,000 satellites themselves, but the millions of paying subscribers behind them and their steadily growing stream of service revenue.
By comparison, the Spacesail constellation project, led by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (also known as Yuanxin Satellite) plans to deploy about 15,000 LEO satellites, a number that would eventually exceed Starlink’s current constellation of satellites in orbit. Yet the real concern for investors is not how many satellites ultimately get launched, but whether they can support a sustainable business model and generate stable cash flow.
From satellites to networks
China’s commercial space sector broadly encompasses three distinct groups. The first is companies focused on launches and manufacturing. These include commercial rocket makers such as LandSpace and iSpace, as well as satellite developers and manufacturers, whose competitive edge lies in their engineering expertise and execution capabilities. These businesses face high technological barriers to entry. But their revenue models remain largely project-based, making them more comparable to advanced manufacturing or defense contractors.
The second group is operations and services providers. Companies such as Shanghai Spacecom Satellite and Geespace, backed by carmaker Geely, derive their long-term value not from the number of satellites they launch but from their ability to build and operate reliable satellite communications networks.
The third group focuses on data applications. Companies such as Piesat Information Technology (688066.SH) and Geovis Technology (688568.SH) have evolved beyond simply supplying satellite imagery. They now provide aerospace information services, digital Earth platforms and data-driven solutions. Rather than selling actual satellites, these companies provide the information and insights generated by those satellites.
The next stage of the value chain
Investment activity in China’s commercial space sector has increasingly shifted downstream. Beyond satellite internet infrastructure, investors are increasingly looking for companies that can provide remote-sensing data, geospatial services and aerospace data applications. Industries ranging from agriculture and logistics to energy management, low-altitude aviation and autonomous driving, are increasingly relying on real-time spatial information to support their decision-making.
Commercial space can be better understood as an industrial chain rather than as a single industry. From rocket launches and satellite manufacturing to satellite operations and data services, each segment serves different customers, addresses different markets and follows different business models. Investors may currently group them under the same theme, but valuation differences are likely to become increasingly apparent as the industry matures.
Once SpaceX goes public, the market may, for the first time, establish a valuation framework that can serve as a reference point for the commercial space industry.
Source:
Bamboo Works
